The buy-to-let market in Walsall is about to enter a challenging 12 to 24 months. Yet by looking back at the last recession and what is happening now, there are crucial lessons all Walsall landlords can learn to protect themselves, and in fact create opportunities both in the short term and ultimately the longer term. For the purposes of this article, I would like to split these and look at the challenges and then the opportunities.

So, let's consider the challenges ahead for Walsall landlords...

1. The impending rise in unemployment stands to hamper tenants' ability to pay their rent.
2. The current rents being achieved pushing affordability in some cases out of reach for many tenants.
3. The possible Capital Gains Tax changes might mean an increase in tax paid by Walsall landlords when they come to sell their Walsall buy-to-let (BTL) properties.

Let's look at these three points in greater detail. Firstly looking at your Walsall tenants ability to pay the rent; the Furlough Scheme certainly did help soften the blow, helping out 8.9 million people in May (out of 30.5 million who were eligible for it) and at the last count in early August, this thankfully had reduced to 5.3 million people (meaning 15.86% of workers are still on furlough). However, it cannot be denied the economic fallout from Coronavirus has already placed some tenants under financial strain. As the Furlough Scheme finishes at the end of October (new proposals being rolled out by Mr Sunak as I write this article), commentators are suggesting the number of tenants either incapable of paying their rent, or requesting a reduction in their rent, is predicted to increase as we go into autumn and early winter.

The ultimate sanction against non-payment of rent is legal proceedings although guidance from the Government has recommended that landlords and tenants should work together and deplete all possible options before starting eviction proceedings. Yet many Walsall landlords are feeling the pressure as many mortgage payment holidays have come to a close at the end of September. Some Walsall landlords can indisputably see that their tenants are finding it tough and they are willing to work with them, but they can only make allowances go so far. Landlords aren't running a charity and I would stress to any tenant that finds themselves being made unemployed in the months to come to apply for Universal Credit as soon as possible, which should help with their rental payments. With regard to the eviction process, the Government have changed the rules a number of times in the last few months, so if you want an update, don't hesitate to contact me, whether you are client or not - I am just happy to help.

Walsall rents are 2.79% higher year on year

Thirdly, there is talk that the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, is looking at changing the Capital Gains Taxation rules. As property is the biggest asset that most people own, this is also reason for concern for Walsall BTL landlords. Currently, Capital Gains Tax on sales of BTL property is levied at 18% for basic income tax rate payers and 28% for higher rate income taxpayers. There is talk the capital gains made on the landlord selling their BTL property could be taxed at the landlord's income tax rate.

Yet before you all start selling your Walsall portfolios before November's budget, any changes in Capital Gains Tax would be immediate. That means to ensure you didn't come foul of the potential rise in the tax, you would have to have to sell your Walsall portfolio at a 'fire sale price' in days and have a solicitor that could do the conveyancing in 2 weeks (whilst it is taking 19 weeks on average for buyers to sort their legal work out) and the buyer be a cash buyer because banks are taking months, not weeks to sort finance. This is just something we are going to have to take on the chin!

Let us now consider the opportunities ahead for you Walsall landlords...

As the country officially entered its first recession since 2009, uncertainty in any markets (be it property or stocks and shares etc.) causes investors to hesitate over whether or not to take the jump. Nevertheless, there are numerous indicators that appear to show this is, indeed, a good time either to become a Walsall landlord or expand one's property empire and buy more property ... let me explain...

...FIRSTLY, assets (such as gold and stocks and shares) are great, yet if they aren't producing income and cash - that doesn't pay for your day-to-day living. Gold doesn't create any income and many FTSE companies won't be paying dividends for a while. Government Bonds are currently earning their investors 0.2% (no - that isn't a typo) and the best savings accounts are achieving 1.1% with a 120-day notice period, so where are you going to invest your hard-earned money?

The average Walsall buy-to-let property will earn a monthly return of 5.68%

Of course, deciding on the right Walsall property is crucial to get a good rental income and return. I have seen so many Walsall first-time landlords buy with their heart and not their head. Buying your own home is more heart than head but BTL property is a completely different kettle of fish. There is the inverse relationship between income (rent) and capital growth (how much it will go up in value in the future) i.e. as one goes up, the other tends to go down - so getting the balance for your needs is vital.

SECONDLY, with the stamp duty holiday and the pent up demand for people wanting to move home in Walsall, we as Walsall Letting Agents & Walsall Estate Agentscan confirm the Walsall property market is certainly very buoyant at the moment, yet even the most optimistic agents say it cannot last. Whether the market goes pop or has a slow and steady puncture, the market will cool in 2021. The recession will mean some people are less able to afford a mortgage. This means that if Walsall property values do ease off in 2021, you may be able to get a great BTL deal if you are planning on becoming a Walsall landlord or expand your property empire as an existing landlord.

Also, if the property market does find property prices realign to a new normal in 2021/2, house sellers may find it difficult to get a good price on their Walsall home during a recession, meaning many house sellers may be more agreeable to sell their property at a lower price.

THIRD, if people aren't buying, they still need a roof over their head and the council aren't building any council houses, meaning the private sector will need to take up the slack.

Zoopla reported tenant demand grew by a third in August 2020 when compared to the same month in 2019

Therefore, if you are still unsure about becoming a Walsall landlord, knowing that more Walsall people want to rent should help you feel more comfortable as the risk of 'running out' of renters interested in your Walsall property is minimal. Please don't go buying any old Walsall property, as it's fundamental that you make a good investment from the start in order to see a good return on your investment.

If Walsall property values do fall in 2021 (as in 2009), tenant demand for Walsall property will only go up

FOURTH, the Government reduced Stamp Duty with the sole aim to benefit the property market. The purchase needs to complete by the end of March 2021, which means you will need to have bought the property by November at the latest (as obtaining finance and legal work is taking at least 19 weeks). A word to the wise though, that whilst the saving in Stamp Duty delivers some up-front saving for those buying a BTL property, don't get carried away and use that saving in the purchase price you pay. Certain sectors of the Walsall property market are seeing some very inflated prices, meaning if you go into battle for a show home quality semi-detached house within a stone's throw of the best school, you will be fighting against buyers who want it for themselves and are prepared to pay top dollar for it, meaning some landlords could end up paying more for a property. My advice, if you want to save on the Stamp Duty, there are bargains to be had - you just have to know what you are looking for.

FIFTH, reports that the mortgage lenders are imposing stricter conditions are true, yet even during Covid, many lenders are seeing landlords as a safer option to lend their money to. In August alone, the number of BTL mortgage products rose by 19.2% (to just over 1,700) meaning if you have a decent deposit of 30% upwards, you are likely to find something that fits your needs (at the time of writing this article, the Birmingham Midshires had a buy-to-let 5-year fixed rate mortgage at 1.94% and Santander at 2.04% ... this is cheap money in anyone's language). Mortgage rates are ever becoming more economical, which is a great motivation for anyone wanting to get a foot on the Walsall BTL property ladder.

FINALLY, words cannot portray the feeling of being able to see and touch one's investment like the sensation of bricks and mortar. BTL investment has to be seen as a long-term investment yet, for many, that is a source of financial security. Of course property values might go south next year (but they might not!) whereas there may be intervals where it's more problematic to sell because property values will be too low, as is normally the situation throughout a recession, there will also be times where Walsall landlords will make a nice profit when selling their BTL homes. Like all things in life - it's all about the timing.

Walsall property values are 185% higher than 20 years ago

If you're looking to invest but are not interested in stocks and shares (and you understand that your money may be tied up for a while) then the Walsall BTL property market could be for you.

To conclude, buying the right Walsall property at the right price to start with, presenting the property in the best way to get the best tenant, fully checking out and referencing the tenant to ensure they have a good, proven track record of being a good tenant that doesn't trash the property and has always paid the rent on time in the past and then finally, managing the property to ensure your property complies with the 200+ legislations and regulations of rental property, so you can sleep well at night ... all to ensure the property is returned at the end of the tenancy to you in good order is what nirvana looks like.

Of course, BTL does come with some risks and challenges, but it's all about mitigating those risks. Also, there is no denying that buy-to-let also comes with a lot of opportunities as well. If you are a landlord with another agent or even a Walsall landlord that manages the property themselves, feel free to drop me a message, email or pick up the phone and let's chat about your personal goals when it comes to BTL ... because what have you got to lose? Surely 15/20 minutes of your time to get great insight is worth it?

Phone: 01922 311016

Email: salekm@ashmorelettings.co.uk

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